HOW MANY CHANCES
A COACH talks to his basketball players,
huddled around the bench during a game.
COACH
Okay team, three seconds left. The way I see it, we've got
one chance: get the ball to Jimmy and have him hit a bucket to win the game.
What do you guys say?
JIMMY
I'll make it.
JOHNSON
Coach, this is crazy!
COACH
You have a problem with Jimmy taking the last shot?
JOHNSON
No, I think Jimmy has the best chance of hitting it. But ONE
chance? That's just not true, statistically speaking.
SMITH
Well, it's our BEST chance, right?
JOHNSON
Sure, sure! It's our BEST chance. But when dealing with
statistics, you can't disregard alternate cases -- classic false reasoning!
Like I could take the last shot -- that's another chance.
COACH
So you're saying that YOU want to take the shot?
JOHNSON
Not at all! I'm a defensive specialist -- not suited to long
range shots. BUT that IS another chance.
JONES
I see, so we have two chances!
JOHNSON
No we have at least FIVE chances -- any of us could
THEORETICALLY take the last shot.
COACH
Okay, fine, fine. Team, we have five chances left, one of
them significantly more likely to work out.
SMITH
Hey don't forget the possibility of them fouling us.
COACH
They're not going to foul us.
JOHNSON
No, but they COULD! Sure, it's unlikely. But one of their
players could decide last minute to foul whoever catches the inbound. That
would give someone two foul shots. That's another chance.
JONES
And that could happen to any of us!
JOHNSON
Right! So that's another FIVE chances!
SMITH
I'm starting to feel like we've got this in the bag!
COACH
Look! None of those things is going to happen! They're not
going to foul us, and no one except for Jimmy has a chance of hitting a tough
shot!
The team protests.
JOHNSON
No, no, no. It's just we have SLIM chances! But those chances
still exist and have to be factored!
SMITH
What if they forfeit!
JOHNSON
Oooh! Another chance!
COACH
They're not going to forfeit!
JONES
We're up to eleven chances!
COACH
Guys, let's focus on getting the ball in Jimmy's hands.
JIMMY
What if there's an earthquake that cracks the court open and
makes it so we can't finish?
JOHNSON
We could definitely appeal to re-play the game -- that's
another chance!
COACH
This is Indiana, jackass! There hasn't been an earthquake
here in recorded history.
JOHNSON
SLIM chance!
JONES
Yeah coach, you were trying to sell us short!
SMITH
What's the matter coach, you don't believe in us?
COACH
Okay! Fine! Gather round. Guys, three seconds left. We have a
finite number of chances left. Of those chances, one stands out to me as more
likely than the others, that our best player gets to take the last shot,
preferably in a high-percentage shot situation, i.e. as close to their basket
as possible.
JOHNSON
That is statistcally sound!
EVERYONE
TEAM!
NARRATOR
Seconds later, an unprecedented tidal wave from Lake Erie
washed over Indiana, filling the gym with water and destroying both teams and
everyone in the stands. Though tragic, the real tragedy is no one will ever
know just how mathematically accurate that team of underdogs really was.