HOW MANY CHANCES

A COACH talks to his basketball players, huddled around the bench during a game.

COACH

Okay team, three seconds left. The way I see it, we've got one chance: get the ball to Jimmy and have him hit a bucket to win the game. What do you guys say?

JIMMY

I'll make it.

JOHNSON

Coach, this is crazy!

COACH

You have a problem with Jimmy taking the last shot?

JOHNSON

No, I think Jimmy has the best chance of hitting it. But ONE chance? That's just not true, statistically speaking.

SMITH

Well, it's our BEST chance, right?

JOHNSON

Sure, sure! It's our BEST chance. But when dealing with statistics, you can't disregard alternate cases -- classic false reasoning! Like I could take the last shot -- that's another chance.

COACH

So you're saying that YOU want to take the shot?

JOHNSON

Not at all! I'm a defensive specialist -- not suited to long range shots. BUT that IS another chance.

JONES

I see, so we have two chances!

JOHNSON

No we have at least FIVE chances -- any of us could THEORETICALLY take the last shot.

COACH

Okay, fine, fine. Team, we have five chances left, one of them significantly more likely to work out.

SMITH

Hey don't forget the possibility of them fouling us.

COACH

They're not going to foul us.

JOHNSON

No, but they COULD! Sure, it's unlikely. But one of their players could decide last minute to foul whoever catches the inbound. That would give someone two foul shots. That's another chance.

JONES

And that could happen to any of us!

JOHNSON

Right! So that's another FIVE chances!

SMITH

I'm starting to feel like we've got this in the bag!

COACH

Look! None of those things is going to happen! They're not going to foul us, and no one except for Jimmy has a chance of hitting a tough shot!

The team protests.

JOHNSON

No, no, no. It's just we have SLIM chances! But those chances still exist and have to be factored!

SMITH

What if they forfeit!

JOHNSON

Oooh! Another chance!

COACH

They're not going to forfeit!

JONES

We're up to eleven chances!

COACH

Guys, let's focus on getting the ball in Jimmy's hands.

JIMMY

What if there's an earthquake that cracks the court open and makes it so we can't finish?

JOHNSON

We could definitely appeal to re-play the game -- that's another chance!

COACH

This is Indiana, jackass! There hasn't been an earthquake here in recorded history.

JOHNSON

SLIM chance!

JONES

Yeah coach, you were trying to sell us short!

SMITH

What's the matter coach, you don't believe in us?

COACH

Okay! Fine! Gather round. Guys, three seconds left. We have a finite number of chances left. Of those chances, one stands out to me as more likely than the others, that our best player gets to take the last shot, preferably in a high-percentage shot situation, i.e. as close to their basket as possible.

JOHNSON

That is statistcally sound!

EVERYONE

TEAM!

NARRATOR

Seconds later, an unprecedented tidal wave from Lake Erie washed over Indiana, filling the gym with water and destroying both teams and everyone in the stands. Though tragic, the real tragedy is no one will ever know just how mathematically accurate that team of underdogs really was.